THE KABBA/BUNU POLITICAL TEMPERATURE: PERFORMANCE, PRIMARIES, AND THE 2027 “DEFICIT”
By Chief Aiyenale Fred Jimoh, Abuja Nigeria.
As 2027 approaches, the political climate in the Kabba/Bunu State Constituency is no longer just “warm” it is reaching a boiling point. The traditional calculus of incumbency is being challenged by a new, more demanding set of grassroots expectations.
In the tea rooms of Kabba and the town halls of Bunu, the debate has moved beyond simple party loyalty. The central question now is whether being a “loyalist” to Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo and a “technocrat” in Lokoja is enough to survive an increasingly restless home base.
THE LOYALTY PARADOX: IS THE GOVERNOR ENOUGH?
In Kogi’s political architecture, alignment with the “New Leaf” administration of Governor Ododo is often seen as the ultimate shield for an incumbent. For Hon. Bello Oluwaseyi Victor, the representative for Kabba/Bunu, this loyalty has been a hallmark of his tenure.
However, as the 2027 cycle nears, a “Loyalty Paradox” is emerging: while being the Governor’s man secures a seat at the table in Lokoja, it does not necessarily secure the hearts of the voters in Kabba/Bunu.
The brewing dissatisfaction stems from the perception that “Lokoja loyalty” has come at the cost of “Local presence.”
In a constituency known for its sophisticated and politically conscious electorate, the mandate is viewed as a contract with the people, not just a service agreement with the executive branch.
THE “YAGBA MODEL” AND THE EMPOWERMENT GAP
The pressure on the current mandate is further intensified by the “Yagba Effect.” Constituents in Kabba/Bunu are looking across their borders to Yagba, where representatives have shifted the narrative from “legislation” to “transformation.” From massive vocational training programs to direct, life-altering financial empowerments, the Yagba counterparts have redefined the role of a State Assembly member.
In Kabba/Bunu, the feedback is clear: bills and motions are important, but they do not replace the need for:
(1) Direct Human Capital Investment: Tangible tools for artisans, scholarships for students, and grants for market women.
(2) Stakeholder Recognition: Acknowledging the party structures that worked the sun and rain to deliver the 2023 victory.
(3) Accessibility: A representative who is seen, heard, and reachable, not one who is only visible during high-level state functions.
THE PARTY’S PRIMARY ALARM: A CROWDED FIELD OF CONTENDERS
Perhaps the most alarming signal for the incumbent is the sheer number of party members currently “hustling” to replace him.
The upcoming All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries for the House of Assembly are already seeing an unprecedented surge of aspirants.
In political journalism, a “crowded primary” is often the most accurate diagnostic tool for a mandate deficit. When the field is full of challengers from within the same party, it suggests a collective belief that the seat is “vacant” in terms of leadership and grassroots impact.
These aspirants are not just running against a person; they are running against a perceived void in representation.
WILL STAKEHOLDERS SHOP FOR A “FRESH DRIVER”?
The “feelers” from Kabba/Bunu suggest that the constituency is in a “shopping mood.” The demand for “fresh air” is a direct critique of the status quo. Party stakeholders, the ward chairmen, the local government executives, and the influential opinion leaders are reportedly looking for a “fresh driver” who can navigate both the high-speed roads of state politics and the rugged terrains of rural empowerment.
For the incumbent, the path to 2027 is narrowing. The 2023 mandate was built on a promise of competence, but the 2027 ticket will be earned through closeness.
As the aspirants sharpen their tools for the primaries, the message to Lokoja from Kabba/Bunu is loud and clear: Loyalty to the Governor is a virtue, but loyalty to the grassroots is a survival requirement.